{
 "schema_version": 1,
 "generated_at": "2026-07-10T10:25:01.275184+00:00",
 "agent": {
  "mode": "paper",
  "focus": "weather",
  "platforms": [
   "polymarket",
   "kalshi"
  ],
  "goal": "Weather-focus dry run: mirror the planned live account. Prove positive fee-adjusted expectancy on station-temperature markets over 1000 settlements; protecting capital beats chasing returns.",
  "risk_profile": "conservative",
  "forecaster": "og-coding",
  "cycle_minutes": 30,
  "min_edge": 0.08,
  "kelly_fraction": 0.15,
  "market_prior_weight": 0.5
 },
 "performance": {
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  "account_value": 100171.55,
  "bankroll": 100000.0,
  "return_pct": 0.001716,
  "peak_value": 100277.67,
  "max_drawdown": 0.007044,
  "cycles": 48,
  "settled_trades": 4,
  "realized_pnl": 276.69,
  "win_rate": 0.5,
  "avg_win": 167.22,
  "avg_loss": -28.88,
  "brier": 0.2672,
  "forecasts_scored": 4,
  "equity_curve": [
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 },
 "positions": [
  {
   "platform": "polymarket",
   "question": "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?",
   "category": "weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "qty": 1244,
   "avg_cost": 0.26,
   "cost_basis": 323.44
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in Austin be 98-99° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "qty": 69,
   "avg_cost": 0.37,
   "cost_basis": 25.53
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in LA be 73-74° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "qty": 1262,
   "avg_cost": 0.46,
   "cost_basis": 580.52
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in LA be 75-76° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "qty": 70,
   "avg_cost": 0.47,
   "cost_basis": 32.9
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in LA be >80° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "qty": 4622,
   "avg_cost": 0.07,
   "cost_basis": 323.54
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in LA be 74-75° on Jul 10, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "qty": 45,
   "avg_cost": 0.53,
   "cost_basis": 23.85
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in Miami be 90-91° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "qty": 1014,
   "avg_cost": 0.1,
   "cost_basis": 101.4
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in Philadelphia be 90-91° on Jul 10, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "qty": 42,
   "avg_cost": 0.54,
   "cost_basis": 22.68
  },
  {
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the minimum temperature be >76° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "qty": 161,
   "avg_cost": 0.15,
   "cost_basis": 24.15
  }
 ],
 "theses": [
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T18:21:09.895994+00:00",
   "status": "held",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in LA be 73-74° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.1688,
   "p_raw": 0.12,
   "p_market": 0.55,
   "edge": -0.3812,
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "base_rate": 0.07,
   "why": "Crowd is anchoring on the current observed high of 73.4°F being inside the 73-74°F target, without properly accounting for diurnal warming: the daily high at KLAX typically occurs in mid-afternoon, 6 of 7 NWP models predict 76-88°F, and the NWS forecaster explicitly calls for 78-88°F near beaches with clearing clouds and a strong 595-dam upper-level high.",
   "invalidation": "If the marine layer at KLAX fails to clear through the afternoon (persistent low clouds keeping temps in the low 70s), or if subsequent model runs shift consensus below 75°F, the probability would increase materially toward the market price.",
   "reasoning": "The current 73.4°F reading is almost certainly a morning or early-afternoon value that will rise as clouds clear—NWS forecasts 78-88°F near beaches and 6 of 7 models project 76-88°F (consensus 78.6°F). The YES window requires the official daily high to land within a razor-thin 0.6°F band above the current reading, which is very unlikely given overwhelming evidence for significant additional warming. The market at 54-56% appears to be heavily anchored on the in-range current observation rather than the forecast trajectory.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T20:20:13.530537+00:00",
   "status": "held",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in LA be 74-75° on Jul 10, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.1897,
   "p_raw": 0.14,
   "p_market": 0.475,
   "edge": -0.2853,
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "base_rate": 0.12,
   "why": "The market appears to be overpricing marine layer cooling at KLAX. The model consensus of 78.5°F sits 3.5-4.5°F above the 2-degree target window, and the NWS forecaster discussion explicitly calls for beach highs of 78-88°F with temperatures 5-10° above normal. The statistical baseline from 90 verified settlements gives only 12%, yet the market prices 47.5% — likely overreacting to the large model spread (±6.1°F) and the mention of increasing onshore flow, without properly accounting for the forecaster's own temperature guidance which is well above 74-75°F.",
   "invalidation": "If morning surface observations at KLAX on July 10 show persistent stratus/fog with temperatures struggling to climb past the low 70s by midday, or if short-range mesoscale models shift the consensus below 76°F, the probability would increase materially. Conversely, if the ECMWF solution (88.5°F) gains support from additional model runs, probability would decrease further.",
   "reasoning": "The statistical baseline from 90 verified settlements gives P(YES)=0.12 based on a 78.5°F consensus that is well above the 74-75°F target. The NWS forecaster discussion supports above-normal temperatures at beaches (78-88°F) and notes clouds will clear by afternoon. While increasing onshore flow and some models near the target (JMA 75.4, UKMO 75.9) justify a small upward adjustment, the market's 47.5% implies a temperature distribution centered far closer to the target than any objective evidence supports. I estimate 14%, slightly above baseline for marine layer uncertainty.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T10:09:26.345179+00:00",
   "status": "held",
   "platform": "polymarket",
   "question": "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?",
   "category": "weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "p_model": 0.5,
   "p_raw": 0.5,
   "p_market": 0.245,
   "edge": 0.255,
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "base_rate": 0.25,
   "why": "Market appears illiquid and not fully incorporating mid-2026 temperature data: multiple sources report 2026 is hottest on record through June, plus a developing El Niño that typically boosts H2 temperatures. A 24% price implies the crowd is either skeptical of these reports or the market has low trading volume and stale pricing.",
   "invalidation": "If NASA GISTEMP actual data shows 2026 is NOT the hottest through June (headlines may use different datasets or be sensationalized), or if El Niño weakens and transitions to La Niña conditions, causing second-half temperatures to fall below 2024 levels.",
   "reasoning": "Multiple independent news sources from June-July 2026 report 2026 is tracking as the hottest year through June, with a developing El Niño that typically elevates global temperatures in the latter half of the year. If accurate per NASA GISTEMP (the resolution source), this should push the probability well above the 24% market price. However, I cannot verify the actual NASA data myself, the headlines are from untrusted sources of varying quality, and six months of data remain uncertain — so I set probability at 50% with low confidence rather than a stronger conviction.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T09:04:21.891888+00:00",
   "status": "held",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in Miami be 90-91° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "p_model": 0.3196,
   "p_raw": 0.28,
   "p_market": 0.075,
   "edge": 0.2446,
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "base_rate": 0.32,
   "why": "The market at 5-10% appears to overextrapolate the model consensus of 91.5°F and the Heat Advisory as guaranteeing a high above 91°F, while underweighting the substantial model spread (89.9-93.1) and the fact that 3 of 7 models land at or inside the 90-91 window. A 2-degree bin centered near the consensus mean should capture ~25-30% of outcomes given sigma ~1.9, not 5-10%.",
   "invalidation": "If afternoon KMIA observations climb rapidly through 92°F by early afternoon, or if updated 12Z model guidance shifts the consensus above 92.5°F, the probability of landing in the narrow 90-91 bin drops sharply.",
   "reasoning": "The statistical baseline of 0.32 is well-constructed from the model consensus (91.5°F) and sigma (1.9°F), placing the 90-91°F bin near the center of the distribution. I trim slightly below baseline to 0.28 because 4 of 7 models are at 92.2+ and the synoptic pattern (ridging, Saharan dust, clear skies) may bias warm, but the market's 5-10% is a dramatic underprice. The NWS discussion confirms hot conditions but does not provide evidence strong enough to push the high decisively above 91°F.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-10T06:12:31.465330+00:00",
   "status": "held",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in Philadelphia be 90-91° on Jul 10, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.2481,
   "p_raw": 0.2,
   "p_market": 0.465,
   "edge": -0.2169,
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "base_rate": 0.16,
   "why": "The crowd appears to be anchoring on the NWS forecaster discussion mentioning 'low 90s' while underweighting the model consensus at 87.7°F (only 1 of 7 models, UKMO at 91.3, reaches the YES range) and the approaching cold front with showers/storms Friday afternoon that would suppress daytime heating. A 2-degree target window centered well above the consensus is being overpriced.",
   "invalidation": "A subsequent model run shifting consensus to ~90°F or higher, or an updated NWS forecast specifically calling for highs of 90-91°F rather than the broad 'upper 80s to low 90s' range, would justify moving toward the market price.",
   "reasoning": "The statistical baseline of 0.16 is well-calibrated: consensus is 87.7°F with sigma 2.0, meaning 90-91°F sits ~1.1-1.6 standard deviations above the mean. I adjust slightly upward from 0.16 to 0.20 because the NWS forecaster discussion explicitly mentions 'low 90s' as possible, suggesting some local knowledge not captured in raw model output. However, the approaching cold front and convective activity Friday afternoon argue against sustained heating, and 6 of 7 models are below the target range. The market at 0.46-0.47 appears substantially overpriced relative to the available evidence.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-10T04:11:07.932480+00:00",
   "status": "pending",
   "platform": "polymarket",
   "question": "Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 10?",
   "category": "weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.3196,
   "p_raw": 0.28,
   "p_market": 0.795,
   "edge": -0.4754,
   "confidence": 0.35,
   "base_rate": 0.18,
   "why": "The crowd is pricing 80% for an exact whole-degree low temperature 3-4 days out, which is implausible given that temperature forecast RMSE at 3-4 day lead time is typically 2-3°C. Even if 24°C is the modal forecast, the probability of hitting any single whole-degree value should be around 20-30%, not 80%. The market may be anchored on a specific forecast without accounting for forecast uncertainty spread.",
   "invalidation": "A reliable 1-2 day short-range forecast from KMA or comparable source showing 24°C low with high confidence at RKSI would significantly increase my estimate. Also, evidence that the market uses wider temperature ranges (e.g., 23.5-24.5°C as a bucket in a multi-option market) rather than exact 24°C would change the calculation.",
   "reasoning": "July climatological lows at Incheon (RKSI) typically range 21-25°C, with 24°C being plausible but not dominant—base rate for any single whole-degree value is roughly 15-20%. The July 6 news about seasonal heat suggests warmer conditions, justifying a modest upward adjustment. However, 80% confidence in an exact temperature 3-4 days ahead is far too high given normal forecast uncertainty. I lack access to the specific KMA forecast the crowd may be using, so my confidence is low.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-10T05:54:38.971174+00:00",
   "status": "pending",
   "platform": "polymarket",
   "question": "Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?",
   "category": "weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.1998,
   "p_raw": 0.15,
   "p_market": 0.505,
   "edge": -0.3052,
   "confidence": 0.35,
   "base_rate": 0.05,
   "why": "Recency bias from unprecedented June 2026 heatwave headlines likely inflating probability for a specific temperature value on July 10. The heatwave appears to have peaked ~June 23-27, and retrospective coverage by July 3 suggests it had subsided. 50% for hitting a specific degree value (or narrow range) is far above even heatwave-adjusted base rates. However, the crowd may have access to medium-range weather forecasts calling for ~35°C that I cannot see.",
   "invalidation": "A 5-7 day weather forecast for Paris-Le Bourget on July 10 showing highs near 35°C would raise my estimate toward the market price; a forecast showing highs below 30°C would lower it further.",
   "reasoning": "Paris-Le Bourget's average July high is ~25°C; hitting exactly 35°C (or a narrow range around it) has a base rate of roughly 5%. The extreme June 2026 heatwave elevates this, but it likely peaked in late June and retrospective July 3 coverage suggests moderation. I estimate ~15% for the 35°C range, well below the market's 50%. Low confidence because I lack actual weather forecast data for July 10 that market participants may possess.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-10T01:10:29.408380+00:00",
   "status": "pending",
   "platform": "polymarket",
   "question": "Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 10?",
   "category": "weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.3537,
   "p_raw": 0.32,
   "p_market": 0.655,
   "edge": -0.3013,
   "confidence": 0.35,
   "base_rate": 0.25,
   "why": "The market at 65% likely reflects a specific weather forecast for July 10 that I cannot verify, but even with a model forecasting 33°C, exact-degree prediction at an equatorial station carries large uncertainty—WMKK July highs cluster around 31-33°C with 32°C being most common, so 33°C is plausible but not dominant. The crowd may be overconfident in a single model run.",
   "invalidation": "Access to a reliable 1-3 day weather forecast for WMKK specifically predicting 33°C with high confidence, or same-day morning temperature observations showing a trajectory toward 33°C, would push my estimate toward 0.45-0.55.",
   "reasoning": "Kuala Lumpur International Airport (WMKK) in July typically records daily highs of 31-33°C, with 32°C being the modal value. A base rate of ~25% for exactly 33°C is reasonable given the tight equatorial distribution. The market price of 65% implies strong conviction in a specific forecast I cannot verify; even a good model predicting 33°C would only yield ~30-40% probability for an exact degree. I anchor near base rate with a small upward adjustment for possible forecast information embedded in the price.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-10T08:18:12.170708+00:00",
   "status": "pending",
   "platform": "polymarket",
   "question": "Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 10?",
   "category": "weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.1688,
   "p_raw": 0.12,
   "p_market": 0.455,
   "edge": -0.2862,
   "confidence": 0.3,
   "base_rate": 0.07,
   "why": "The crowd likely has access to specific short-range weather forecast models showing a post-heatwave cold front that I lack. However, even accounting for post-heatwave pattern shifts, 45% for a high of 19°C — well below Warsaw's normal July high of 23–24°C — appears dramatically overpriced relative to base rates. The market may also have wider temperature ranges than I'm assuming, or low liquidity distorting the price.",
   "invalidation": "A reliable weather forecast for Warsaw on July 10, 2026 showing an expected high near 19–20°C would raise my estimate toward the market price; a forecast showing 23–26°C would lower it further. Knowing the exact range width for this market option would also significantly adjust my estimate.",
   "reasoning": "Warsaw's normal July high is 23–24°C, and the historical frequency of a high of exactly 19°C (or a narrow range around it) is roughly 5–8%. The late-June 2026 heatwave (Poland hit a record 40.5°C) could plausibly be followed by a pattern shift and cooldown, but 45% still seems far too high for a below-normal temperature outcome. Without access to current forecast models, my confidence is low and I may be missing the specific meteorological data driving the crowd's pricing.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T15:51:40.696734+00:00",
   "status": "pending",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in Philadelphia be <83° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "p_model": 0.3079,
   "p_raw": 0.2665,
   "p_market": 0.055,
   "edge": 0.2529,
   "confidence": 0.4,
   "base_rate": 0.42,
   "why": "The market is heavily overpricing the NWS forecaster's qualitative 'mid 80s or so' language while underweighting the numerical model consensus of 82.0°F — 5 of 7 models are below 83°F, including the typically most-accurate ECMWF at 82.8°F. Additionally, the forecasted afternoon thunderstorms with heavy rain could cap temperatures before they reach the mid-80s, a possibility the market seems to be ignoring.",
   "invalidation": "If KPHL real-time observations show the temperature already at or above 83°F with hours of heating remaining, or if the NWS point forecast updates to explicitly predict 85°F+, the probability drops below 10%. Conversely, if thunderstorms arrive earlier than expected and the temperature stalls near 80-81°F, probability rises above 40%.",
   "reasoning": "The model consensus is 82.0°F with 5 of 7 NWP models below the 83°F threshold, including the ECMWF at 82.8°F. The NWS forecaster discussion calls for 'mid 80s or so,' which is above 83°F and likely explains the market's 5-6% pricing. However, the forecaster's qualitative statement is less precise than the numerical models, and the approaching low pressure system with afternoon storms could limit warming. I estimate 22% — below the 42% statistical baseline (adjusting for the forecaster's explicitly above-threshold prediction) but well above the market, reflecting strong model support for a high near 82°F.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-10T07:14:25.469771+00:00",
   "status": "pending",
   "platform": "polymarket",
   "question": "Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 10?",
   "category": "weather",
   "side": "no",
   "p_model": 0.46,
   "p_raw": 0.45,
   "p_market": 0.71,
   "edge": -0.25,
   "confidence": 0.3,
   "base_rate": 0.2,
   "why": "The market likely has access to real-time LLBG temperature data and specific Israeli weather forecasts for July 10 that I don't have. The market closes at 15:00 local time—right at peak heating—so the 70% price may reflect near-real-time observations. However, 70% for an exact whole-degree temperature outcome still seems to underweight the irreducible ~1-2°C forecast uncertainty even a few hours out.",
   "invalidation": "A specific forecast for LLBG calling for a high of 31°C with high confidence, or confirmation that the temperature at 14:00-15:00 local time on July 10 is 31°C and leveling off, would support the market price. A forecast calling for 33-35°C (closer to Ben Gurion's July climatological mean of ~32-33°C) would invalidate it.",
   "reasoning": "Ben Gurion Airport's July climatological high is ~32-33°C, making 31°C slightly below average but plausible, especially given recent news of a cooldown. The base rate for hitting any single whole-degree value is ~15-20% given typical daily variance. The market closes at 15:00 local time—near the typical temperature maximum—so the 70% price may embed real-time observations I can't access. Without that data, I split the difference but lean below market due to inherent temperature forecast uncertainty.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T15:58:34.189399+00:00",
   "status": "pending",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Jul 9, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "side": "yes",
   "p_model": 0.341,
   "p_raw": 0.305,
   "p_market": 0.095,
   "edge": 0.246,
   "confidence": 0.475,
   "base_rate": 0.41,
   "why": "The crowd appears to be treating '90-91°' as an impossibly narrow 2-degree bullseye without recognizing that NWS Climatological Reports use integer reporting, making the effective window ~89.5-91.5°F. Six of seven NWP models cluster between 90.4-93.5°F with consensus at 90.8°F — dead center of the resolution range — and the NWS forecaster explicitly states 'temps expected to get back up into the 90s.' The market at 10% implies the crowd thinks this is a ~1-in-10 shot when the models and forecaster discussion suggest it's closer to 1-in-3.",
   "invalidation": "If scattered thunderstorms (20-40% PoP noted in forecast) arrive earlier than expected and cap the daytime high below 90°F, or if the 12Z model cycle shifts consensus above 92°F, pushing the mode of the distribution outside the 90-91 window.",
   "reasoning": "The statistical baseline of 0.41 already incorporates the model consensus (90.8°F), station bias (+0.3°F), and forecast uncertainty (σ=2.1°F). I trim to 0.36 because the NWS forecaster discussion notes increasing PoPs (20-40%) and returning Gulf moisture today, which introduces storm-cooling risk the baseline may not fully capture. The market at 0.10 is dramatically below both the baseline and my estimate, suggesting the crowd is mispricing the effective width of the NWS integer-reporting window relative to where the model consensus sits.",
   "model": "og-coding"
  }
 ],
 "track_record": [
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T11:47:34.036812+00:00",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the minimum temperature be >77° on Jul 8, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "outcome": "yes",
   "pnl": -20.4,
   "cost_basis": 20.4
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T11:47:33.762883+00:00",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the minimum temperature be 82-83° on Jul 8, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "outcome": "yes",
   "pnl": -37.35,
   "cost_basis": 37.35
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T11:47:33.491426+00:00",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in NYC be 82-83° on Jul 8, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "outcome": "no",
   "pnl": 186.44,
   "cost_basis": 129.56
  },
  {
   "ts": "2026-07-09T11:47:32.408517+00:00",
   "platform": "kalshi",
   "question": "Will the high temp in LA be 75-76° on Jul 8, 2026?",
   "category": "climate and weather",
   "outcome": "no",
   "pnl": 148.0,
   "cost_basis": 148.0
  }
 ],
 "rsi": {
  "active_generation": null,
  "generations": [],
  "meta_cycles": []
 },
 "compute": {
  "total": {
   "calls": 48,
   "prompt_tokens": 53595,
   "completion_tokens": 200653,
   "total_tokens": 254248,
   "calls_without_usage": 0
  },
  "by_node": [
   {
    "node": "forecast",
    "calls": 48,
    "prompt_tokens": 53595,
    "completion_tokens": 200653,
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    "calls_without_usage": 0
   }
  ],
  "by_model": [
   {
    "model": "og-coding",
    "calls": 48,
    "prompt_tokens": 53595,
    "completion_tokens": 200653,
    "total_tokens": 254248,
    "calls_without_usage": 0
   }
  ],
  "by_day": [
   {
    "day": "2026-07-10",
    "calls": 48,
    "prompt_tokens": 53595,
    "completion_tokens": 200653,
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    "calls_without_usage": 0
   }
  ],
  "ledger_started": "2026-07-10T08:24:03.620234+00:00",
  "forecasts_recorded": 376
 },
 "links": {
  "github": "https://github.com/autotradingagent/openthomas",
  "x": ""
 }
}